Babe I'm Gonna Leave You

In the darkest days of the Bush II regime, I investigated the possibility of California seceding from the United States. I found organizations like Free the Bear that posit our state — the seventh largest economy in the world — would be able to leave the Union of the United States of America and survive as an independent republic. But these groups never accurately characterize the likely response of a modern USA should a state try to secede and strike out on her own.

Eventually I came to realize that a large part of California's strength was her place in the Union.

Now it seems Conservatives are learning these same lessons. The folks in Texas have started to imply that secession is a topic of conversation. And as much as I'd be delighted to see them leave, perhaps they might want to review this analysis from the editors of Foreign Policy of what would happen should they try to dissolve the bonds of our Union. It's not a pretty picture:

In short: the state of Texas would rapidly become direly impoverished, would need to be heavily armed, and would be wracked with existential domestic and foreign policy threats. It would probably make our failed states list in short order."

Update: On the other hand, Ezra Klein ponders how the US would benefit from being Texas-less:

After Texas Governor Rick Perry fired up a Tea Party audience by musing about secession as a response to federal tax rates, I spent most of the day idly considering what it would look like for America if Texas seceded from the union. More trains! Universal health care! An end to an important hybrid food culture!"

Update 2: And Nate Silver takes a look at how Texas secession would help Democrats:

• If Texas were not in the Union, the Democrats would currently have a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate — or at least they would once Al Franken gets seated. This is because, in a 98-seat Senate, only 59 votes would be required to break a filibuster.


• If Texas were not in the Union, the Republicans would operate from a significantly weakened position in the House, since the net 8-vote advantage their congressional delegation gives them in the state (they have 20 seats to the Democrats' 12) is by far their largest."

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Babe I'm Gonna Leave You	Song by Led Zeppelin